Calculating Odds

One of the most important mathematical concepts in poker (not just hold ’em) is the notion of pot odds—the odds that you are getting from the pot. Let’s say that the pot contains $180. Your opponent bets $20. After that bet, the pot contains $200 and it will cost you $20 to call the bet. The pot odds you are getting are computed as the amount of the pot divided by the bet you have to call. So, in this case the pot odds are 10-1.

Now say that you hold two hearts, including the Ace of hearts and there are two hearts on the board with one card to come. And let’s assume that your opponent in this pot has a straight (obviously, you would not know this, but this is just an example). The question you need to figure out is if you should call the $20 bet. Well, the chance of your hitting your flush (making your hand) is approximately 20% (trust me). So your express odds are about 4-1. That is you will make your flush one out of five times (4 times no and one time yes). Anytime your express odds are greater than the pot odds, in this case, 4-1 is greater than 10-1, you should at least call. Over time, you will win more money (or lose less money) making this call than you would if you folded.