The Role of Uncertainty Propagation in Performance-Based Wind Engineering
Seymour M.J. Spence – Assistant Professor, University of Michigan
Performance-based wind engineering is fast becoming the state-of-the-art approach for assessing the performance of wind excited buildings. While frameworks have been developed for the implementation of performance-based seismic engineering, their direct application to wind engineering is not possible due to the far longer duration of wind events (order of hours as opposed to minutes) and the far more important role of the envelope system in dictating performance. This seminar will focus on modeling strategies to overcome these challenges within the context of uncertainty propagation. Firstly, a non-intrusive metamodeling approach will be discussed for the efficient propagation of uncertainty through nonlinear structural systems using stochastic simulation. This approach is based on defining physics-based parametric reduced-order models of the high-fidelity system, and then leaning the reduced order model through multiple-input multiple-output system identification schemes that are integrated with polynomial chaos expansions for modeling time-invariant uncertainty. Secondly, focus will be placed on uncertainty propagation through high-fidelity computational models (e.g. fragility-based progressive damage models and CFD-based Eulerian multiphase wind driven rain models) of the envelope system of engineered buildings. In this respect, the possibility of using conditional stochastic simulation for estimating performance metrics associated with rare events will be discussed.
Seymour M.J. Spence is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Michigan. He joined the University of Michigan in 2014 from the University of Notre Dame, where he was a Research Assistant Professor. He earned a M.S. in Civil Engineering in 2005 from the University of Perugia and a joint Ph.D. from the University of Florence and Braunschweig in 2009. Spence has authored over 100 publications in leading journals and conferences and was the recipient of the 2015 ASCE’s J. James R. Croes Medal and the 2018 National Science Foundation’s CAREER Award.
All civil engineering graduate seminars are FREE and open to the public. Attendance is required for all enrolled Civil Engineering graduate students.
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