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Scam Trafficking, Deforestation, and Conflict: Evidence from Myanmar
- Program: Applied Mathematics and Statistics
- Course: EN.553.501 Senior Thesis
- Year: 2026
Project Description:
In 2023, an estimated 220,000 people in Myanmar and Cambodia were confined to compounds and forced to digitally scam others. Online scam trafficking has grown dramatically in the wake of armed conflict and related criminal activity, like deforestation, that comes as a result of weakened institutions. The specific relationship between factors like conflict, deforestation, and the scam compound presence remains unclear. Using large-scale data on conflict reports and deforestation metrics, we identify geospatial trends related to scam trafficking compounds and do a causal analysis of the data. We find that in Myanmar regions with high conflict have lower amounts of forest loss, and areas with high forest loss have lower amounts of conflict. We also find that the presence of trafficking compounds is associated with a slight increase in deforestation. A better understanding of how deforestation, conflict, and scam compounds are related can help policymakers make more informed decisions.
Project Photo:
This photo is a map of the townships in Myanmar. Townships with a darker red have higher incidences of conflict. The blue dots represent the approximate locations of scam compounds.
