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The One Shot Model – Analyzing how possession-limited scoring would transform competitive dynamics, strategic decision-making, and fan engagement in MLB
- Program: Computer Science
- Course: EN.601.513 Group Undergraduate Project
- Year: 2026
Project Description:
Baseball’s unlimited scoring structure produces blowout games in which competitive tension can disappear early. In the 2023 MLB season, 19.9% of all games ended with a margin of at least six runs, meaning that nearly one in five contests became effectively non-competitive. Motivated by this imbalance, we propose the One Shot Rule, a scoring constraint inspired by lead-limiting ideas in possession-based sports. Under this rule, once a team takes the lead in a half-inning, it is permitted only one additional run-scoring plate appearance; subsequent scoring opportunities in that half-inning are suppressed. To evaluate the rule, we adopt a dual-methodology framework combining retrospective re-analysis of all 2,430 real MLB games from the 2023 season with a 10,000-game Monte Carlo simulation designed to estimate longer-run probabilistic effects. This framework allows us to examine both observed and simulated changes in blowout frequency, comeback potential, and competitive balance. We further analyze how the rule alters managerial incentives and offensive strategy, and we introduce a fan engagement metric to assess whether a closer, more suspenseful game structure may improve spectator experience.
Project Photo:
The One Shot Model Demo
