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NFL Fourth Down Analytics

Project Description:

Analytics have been used more and more to drive decision making in professional football. One area that this is happening in on fourth down decisions in the NFL. These analytics are developed by teams or companies such as ESPN and lack transparency. This project aims to build a framework that is accessible to anyone. It includes a conversion probability model and a website where people can obtain decision recommendations for historical plays or their own fourth down scenario.

Project Photo:

Neon orange down marker and down indicator box on a football field

Fourth down markers on a fourth and short

Project Poster

Open full size poster in new tab (PDF)

Student Team Members

Course Faculty

Anton Dahbura

Project Mentors, Sponsors, and Partners

Tad Berkery
JHU Sports Analytics Research Group
This work was made possible by the generous support of the Dackow Design Fund.