The Acheson J. Duncan Lecture Series: AMS Seminar: Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago) @ Hodson 311

Title: Distribution free prediction: Is conditional inference possible?
Abstract: We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal coverage guarantees, where predictive coverage holds on average over all possible test points, but this is not sufficient for many practical applications where we would like to know that our predictions are valid for a given individual, not merely on average over a population. On the other hand, exact conditional inference guarantees are known to be impossible without imposing assumptions on the underlying distribution. In this work we aim to explore the space in between these two, and examine what types of relaxations of the conditional coverage property would alleviate some of the practical concerns with marginal coverage guarantees while still being possible to achieve in a distribution-free setting.
This is joint work with Emmanuel Candès, Aaditya Ramdas, and Ryan Tibshirani.
Bio: TBA