{"id":51223,"date":"2025-01-27T15:29:15","date_gmt":"2025-01-27T20:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/?post_type=tribe_events&#038;p=51223"},"modified":"2025-02-11T09:39:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-11T14:39:51","slug":"ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang","status":"publish","type":"tribe_events","link":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/","title":{"rendered":"AMS Weekly Seminar Series | Yao Zhang"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Location: <\/strong>Clark 110<\/p>\n<p><strong>When:<\/strong>\u00a0February 13th at 10:00 a.m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Title:<\/strong> <span>Posterior\u00a0Conformal\u00a0Prediction<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract:<\/strong>\u00a0Conformal\u00a0prediction\u00a0is a popular technique for constructing\u00a0prediction\u00a0intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, holding on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any specific subgroup. In this talk, I will introduce a new method,\u00a0posterior\u00a0conformal\u00a0prediction\u00a0(PCP), which generates\u00a0prediction\u00a0intervals with both marginal and approximate conditional coverage for clusters (or subgroups) naturally discovered in the data. PCP achieves these guarantees by modelling the conditional conformity score distribution as a mixture of cluster distributions. Compared to other methods with approximate conditional coverage, this approach produces tighter intervals, particularly when the test data is drawn from clusters that are well represented in the validation data. PCP can also be applied to guarantee conditional coverage on user-specified subgroups, in which case it achieves robust coverage on smaller subgroups within the specified subgroups. In classification, the theory underlying PCP allows for adjusting the coverage level based on the classifier\u2019s confidence, achieving significantly smaller sets than standard\u00a0conformal\u00a0prediction\u00a0sets. Experiments demonstrate the performance of PCP on diverse datasets from socio-economic, scientific and healthcare applications.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bio:<\/strong> <span>Yao Zhang is currently a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Statistics at Stanford University, advised by Professor Emmanuel Cand\u00e8s. He received his Ph.D. in Mathematics at the University of Cambridge, supervised by Professor Mihaela van der Schaar. His research interest focuses on developing assumption-lean methods to analyze complex data and models used for prediction and causal inference.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Zoom link:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wse.zoom.us\/j\/93287142219\">https:\/\/wse.zoom.us\/j\/93287142219<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Location: Clark 110 When:\u00a0February 13th at 10:00 a.m. Title: Posterior\u00a0Conformal\u00a0Prediction Abstract:\u00a0Conformal\u00a0prediction\u00a0is a popular technique for constructing\u00a0prediction\u00a0intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, holding on average over the entire&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":69,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_tribe_events_status":"","_tribe_events_status_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"tribe_events_cat":[260],"class_list":["post-51223","tribe_events","type-tribe_events","status-publish","hentry","tribe_events_cat-seminars-and-endowed-lectures","cat_seminars-and-endowed-lectures"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AMS Weekly Seminar Series | Yao Zhang | Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AMS Weekly Seminar Series | Yao Zhang | Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Location: Clark 110 When:\u00a0February 13th at 10:00 a.m. Title: Posterior\u00a0Conformal\u00a0Prediction Abstract:\u00a0Conformal\u00a0prediction\u00a0is a popular technique for constructing\u00a0prediction\u00a0intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. 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The coverage is marginal, holding on average over the entire&hellip;","og_url":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/","og_site_name":"Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics","article_modified_time":"2025-02-11T14:39:51+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/","url":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/","name":"AMS Weekly Seminar Series | Yao Zhang | Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-01-27T20:29:15+00:00","dateModified":"2025-02-11T14:39:51+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/event\/ams-special-seminar-series-yao-zhang\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Events","item":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/events\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"AMS Weekly Seminar Series | Yao Zhang"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/#website","url":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/","name":"Hopkins Applied Math & Statistics","description":"Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams","push-errors":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/51223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/tribe_events"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/69"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/51223\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51714,"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/51223\/revisions\/51714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51223"},{"taxonomy":"tribe_events_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/engineering.jhu.edu\/ams\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events_cat?post=51223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}