Guikema, Seth

Assistant Professor
Dept Of Geography Environmental Engrg

Ames Hall 205
3400 N Charles St
(410) 516-6042
sguikema@jhu.edu

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Seth Guikema

Project Aims to Help Mid-Atlantic Combat Hurricanes, Heat Waves

October 29, 2013

The National Science Foundation has awarded Seth Guikema, an assistant professor of geography and environmental engineering at Johns Hopkins University’s Whiting School of Engineering, a $3 million grant to build a program that will determine the effect of repeated hurricanes and heat waves on the Mid-Atlantic region and suggest ways to improve the region’s ability to withstand them.

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About

Education
  • Ph.D. 2003, Stanford University
  • M.S. 1999, Stanford University
  • M.Eng. by Thesis 1998, University of Canterbury
  • B.S. 1994, Cornell University
Experience
  • 2008: Innovative Decisions, Inc.; Senior Decision Analyst [consulting]
  • 2008: Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
  • 2008-2014: Professor II (adjunct), Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management and Planning, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway.
  • 2005-2007: Assistant Professor, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
  • 2003-2005: Postdoctoral Associate, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
Research Areas
  • Data analytics and data mining.
  • Probabilistic risk analysis
  • Performance and reliability of large-scale infrastructure systems in response to natural and human-induced hazards
  • Parametric and non-parametric count data regression
  • Modeling large-scale, interdependent infrastructure networks
  • Forecasting the impacts of hurricanes on infrastructure systems.
  • Environmental life-cycle assessment methods
  • environmental impacts of large-scale infrastructure systems
  • Bayesian probability modeling
Awards
  • 2012: Best Paper Award, Risk Analysis journal for "Modeling Intelligent Adversaries for Terrorism Risk Assessment: Some Necessary Conditions for Adversary Models" (1 of 5 best papers selected)
  • 2012: Best Paper award, Risk Analysis journal for "Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A level-k approach" with Rothschild and McLay. (1 of 5 best papers)
  • 2010: Chauncy Starr Award from the International Society for Risk Analysis: "awarded to any member age 40 years or younger for outstanding achievement in ... risk analysis and exceptional promise for continued contributions to risk analysis"
  • 2002: 2002 Best Paper award from the INFORMS Military Applications Section and the Military Operations Research Society for:Paté-Cornell, M.E. and S.D. Guikema. 2002. “Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Prior
  • 2001: Technical paper winner, Economics track, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Space 2001 Conference
  • 1999: 1999 Best Paper in Environmental Conservation for: Guikema, S.D. and M. Milke. 1999. “Quantitative Decision Tools for Conservation Program Planning: Practice, Theory, and Potential.” Environmental Conservation, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 179-189.
  • 1998: Best paper in the Quality and Manufacturing Technology category at the 5th Annual New Zealand Engineering and Technology Postgraduate Conference (1998)
  • 2001 - 2003: Department of Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship (2001-2003)
  • 2000 - 2001: Centennial Teaching Assistant, School of Engineering, Stanford University, 2000-2001
  • 1999 - 2000: Teaching Assistant of the Year, Department of Industrial Engineering & Engineering Management, Stanford University, 1999-2000
  • 1995 - 1999: U.S. Department of Energy Marilyn Lloyd Fellowship
  • 1998 - 1998: Fulbright Fellowship (1998)
Presentations
  • Hurricanes, Power Systems, and Climate Change, New York Area Energy Economists, January 24, 2013
  • Hurricanes, Power Systems, and Climate Change, Rice University Department of Civil Engineering, January 11, 2012
  • Intergenerational Risk Management Issues, Foundations of Risk Analysis Workshop, Salo, Italy, January 8, 2012
  • Infrastructure Modeling for Environmental and Disaster Assessment and Management, Nanjing University School of the Environment, January 6, 2012
  • Hurricanes, Climate Change, and Power Systems Risk, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Seminar, Johns Hopkins University, October 14, 2011
  • Bad Things Happen to Good Power Systems: Models and Experiences in Forecasting Hurricane Power Outages, M. Gordan Wolman Seminar, Department of Geography & Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University., October 1, 2011
  • Plenary Talk: Hurricanes, Power Systems, and Climate Change, U.S. Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Systems Meeting, Washington, D.C., September 1, 2011
  • Complex Systems Modeling and Applications, GIAI Conference, Johns Hopkins University, April 1, 2011
  • Methods for Natural Hazard Infrastructure Risk Assessment, IBM Watson Research Center, Invited Talk, November 15, 2010
  • Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense, Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science Workshop on Game Theory For Homeland Security. (Invited Talk), September 15, 2010
  • Predicting Power Outages Due to Hurricanes, Johns Hopkins University Alumni Association presentation in New York city, December 18, 2009
  • Predicting Power Outages Due to Hurricanes, Department of Homeland Security National Communications System Senior Leadership Briefing, December 8, 2009
  • Risk Analysis for Interdependent Infrastructure Systems, Department of Fire Science and System Safety, Lund University, Sweden (invited departmental seminar), August 19, 2009
  • Thoughts on the ALARP Principle, Department of Industrial Economics, Risk Management, and Planning, University of Stavanger (Norway), August 14, 2009
  • Using Statistics to Understand Complex Environment, Infrastructure, Human Interactions During Disasters, Biostatistics seminar series, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health (invited talk), April 15, 2009
  • Risk, Trees, and Electric Power Systems, International Society of Arborists, Tree Risk Assessment Conference, Charlotte, NC. (Plenary Talk), February 5, 2009
  • Modeling Intelligent Threats, Workshop on Vulnerability Assessment of Critical Infrastructure with Case Studies on Power Transmission Networks and Dams, University of Wisconsin, Madison. (Plenary Talk), January 7, 2009
  • Statistical Assessment of the Influence of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hurricane Hazards, Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University (Departmental Seminar), November 18, 2008
  • Modeling Infrastructure Network Risk Using Statistical Models . Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University. 2007-05-00. (Invited), April 30, 2007
  • Probabilistic Risk and Decision Modeling for Complex Energy Systems . Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College. 2007-05-00. (Invited), April 30, 2007
  • Modeling Count Data for Environmental Decision-Making . Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University. 2007-04-00., March 31, 2007
  • Modeling Count Data for Environmental Decision-Making . Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University. 2007-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2007
  • Modeling Count Data for Infrastructure Management . Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Maryland. 2007-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2007
  • Risk Analysis in the DHS Era: Game Theory, Bayesian Probability, and Setting Priorities . Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University. 2006-09-00. (Invited), August 31, 2006
  • Probabilistic Methods for Assessing and Managing Infrastructure Reliability . Zachry Department of Civil Engineering. 2005-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2005
  • Probability Modeling of Count Data for Reliability Analysis Department of Mathematics, U.S. Naval Academy. . 2005-01-00. (Invited), December 31, 2004
  • Risk Analysis for Complex Infrastructure Systems: Bayesian Methods and Terrorist Threat Modeling . Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley. 2004-02-00. (Invited), January 31, 2004
  • Optimal Resource Allocation in a Design Team with Asymmetric Information . Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University. 2003-04-00. (Invited), March 31, 2003
  • Optimal Resource Allocation in a Design Team with Asymmetric Information Ivey School of Business, University of Western Ontario. . 2003-04-00. (Invited), March 31, 2003
  • Decision and Risk Analysis for Resource Allocation . Saïd School of Business, Oxford University. 2002-12-00. (Invited), November 30, 2002
  • Preventing Disaster by Design: Resource Allocation in the Design Phase . Massachusetts Institue of Technology, Department of Aerospace Engineering and the Engineering Systems Division. 2002-04-00. (Invited), March 31, 2002

Publications

Journal Articles
  • Rothschild, C., Mclay, L., Guikema, S. (2012). Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A Level‐k Approach. Risk Analysis.
  • Francis, R.A., Geedipally, S.R., Guikema, S.D., Dhavala, S.S., Lord, D., Larocca, S. (2012). Characterizing the Performance of the Conway‐Maxwell Poisson Generalized Linear Model. Risk Analysis.
  • Yu, O.Y., Guikema, S.D., Briaud, J.L., Burnett, D. (2011). Sensitivity analysis for multi‐attribute system selection problems in onshore Environmentally Friendly Drilling (EFD). Systems Engineering.
  • Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.M. (2011). Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Nateghi, R., Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.D. (2011). Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes. Risk Analysis.
  • Cho, H., Kim, D., Olivera, F., Guikema, S.D. (2011). Enhanced speciation in particle swarm optimization for multi-modal problems. European Journal of Operational Research.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S. (2011). Modeling Intelligent Adversaries for Terrorism Risk Assessment: Some Necessary Conditions for Adversary Models. Risk Analysis.
  • Aven, T., Guikema, S. (2011). Whose uncertainty assessments (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts' or the experts'?. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 96(10). 1257-1262.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Yu, O.-Y., Guikema, S.D., Briaud, J.-L., Burnett, D. (2011). Quantitative decision tools for system selection in environmentally friendly drilling. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. 28(3). 185-208.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Nateghi, R., Quiring, S.M., Guikema, S.D. (2010). Estimating the Impact of Climate Variability on Cumulative Hurricane Destructive Potential Through Data Mining. Hurricanes and Climate Change. 231-252.
  • Guikema, S.D., Aven, T. (2010). Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 95(5). 478-483.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Booker, G., Torres, J., Guikema, S., Sprintson, A., Brumbelow, K. (2010). Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 95(4). 337-344.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Booker, G., Sprintson, A., Zechman, E., Singh, C., Guikema, S. (2010). Efficient traffic loss evaluation for transport backbone networks. Computer Networks. 54(10). 1683-1691.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D., Aven, T. (2010). Is ALARP applicable to the management of terrorist risks?. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Lord, D., Geedipally, S.R., Guikema, S.D. (2010). Extension of the Application of Conway Maxwell Poisson Models: Analyzing Traffic Crash Data Exhibiting Underdispersion. Risk Analysis. 30(8). 1268-1276.
  • Yamijala, S., Guikema, S.D., Brumbelow, K. (2009). Statistical models for the analysis of water distribution system pipe break data. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 94(2). 282-293.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D. (2009). Infrastructure design issues in disaster-prone regions. Science. 323(5919). 1302.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S., Coffelt, J.P. (2009). Modeling count data for non-linear, complex infrastructure systems. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 15(3). 172-178.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Han, S.R., Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.M. (2009). Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts Using Generalized Additive Models. Risk analysis: an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.
  • Torres, J.M., Brumbelow, K., Guikema, S.D. (2009). Risk classification and uncertainty propagation for virtual water distribution systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 94(8). 1259-1273.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S., Gardoni, P. (2009). Reliability estimation for networks of reinforced concrete bridges. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 15. 61.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Booker, G., Torres, J., Guikema, S., Sprintson, A., Brumbelow, K. (2009). Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Sanchez-silva, M., Rosowsky, D., Guikema, S. (2009). Optimization Model for Design and Operation of Transportation Networks in Seismic Regions. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 15(2). 70-79.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D. (2009). Natural disaster risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems: An approach based on statistical learning theory. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 94(4). 855-860.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D., Aven, T. (2009). Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Imbeah, W., Guikema, S. (2009). Managing Construction Projects Using the Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management-Asce. 135(8). 772-781.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Han, S., Guikema, S., Quiring, S., Et Al., . (2009). Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. 94(2). 199-210.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D., Goffelt, J.P. (2008). A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis. Risk analysis. 28(1). 213-223.
  • Lord, D., Guikema, S., Geedipally, S. (2008). Application of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson generalized linear model for analyzing motor vehicle crashes. ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION. 40(3). 1123-1134.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Cho, H., Olivera, F., Guikema, S.D. (2008). A derivation of the number of minima of the Griewank function. Applied Mathematics and Computation. 204(2). 694-701.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Lord, D., Guikema, S.D., Geedipally, S.R. (2008). Application of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson generalized linear model for analyzing motor vehicle crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 40(3). 1123-1134.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Pate-cornell, M., Guikema, S. (2008). Probabilistic Modeling or Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures (vol 7, pg 5, 2002). MILITARY OPERATIONS RESEARCH. 13(3). 89-89.
    View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S., Coffelt, J. (2008). A flexible count data regression model for risk analysis (vol 28, pg 213, 2008). RISK ANALYSIS. 28(3). 805-805.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S. (2007). A proposal for including technical failure risk in market-based resource reallocation for spacecraft design. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. 92(5). 653-659.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Milke, M., Guikema, S. (2007). Parameterized analysis of the choice between do-nothing and act-now options. CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS. 24(3). 179-191.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Xu, N., Guikema, S.D., Davidson, R.A., Nozick, L.K., Çağnan, Z., Vaziri, K. (2007). Optimizing scheduling of post‐earthquake electric power restoration tasks. Earthquake engineering & structural dynamics. 36(2). 265-284.
  • Xu, N., Guikema, S., Davidson, R., Et Al., . (2007). Optimizing scheduling of post-earthquake electric power restoration tasks. EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS. 36(2). 265-284.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D. (2007). Formulating informative, data-based priors for failure probability estimation in reliability analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 92(4). 490-502.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S.D., Davidson, R.A., Liu, H. (2006). Statistical models of the effects of tree trimming on power system outages. Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on. 21(3). 1549-1557.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S., Davidson, R., Liu, H. (2006). Statistical models of the effects of tree trimming on power system outages. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY. 21(3). 1549-1557.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Çağnan, Z., Davidson, R.A., Guikema, S.D. (2006). Post-earthquake restoration planning for Los Angeles electric power. Earthquake spectra. 22. 589.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S. (2006). Incentive compatible resource allocation in concurrent design. ENGINEERING OPTIMIZATION. 38(2). 209-226.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S. (2005). A comparison of reliability estimation methods for binary systems. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. 87(3). 365-376.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Dillon, R., Pate-cornell, A., Guikema, S. (2005). Optimal use of budget reserves to minimize technical and management failure risks during complex project development. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT. 52(3). 382-395.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S., Pate-cornell, M. (2005). Probability of infancy problems for space launch vehicles. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. 87(3). 303-314.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S. (2005). An estimation of the social costs of landfill siting using a choice experiment. WASTE MANAGEMENT. 25(3). 331-333.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Dillon, R.L., Paté-cornell, M.E., Guikema, S.D. (2005). Optimal use of budget reserves to minimize technical and management failure risks during complex project development. Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on. 52(3). 382-395.
  • Guikema, S., Pate-cornell, M. (2004). Bayesian analysis of launch vehicle success rates. JOURNAL OF SPACECRAFT AND ROCKETS. 41(1). 93-102.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Pate-cornell, M., Dillon, R., Guikema, S. (2004). On the limitations of redundancies in the improvement of system reliability. RISK ANALYSIS. 24(6). 1423-1436.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Guikema, S., Milke, M. (2003). Sensitivity analysis for multi-attribute project selection problems. CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS. 20(3). 143-162.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Dillon, R.L., Paté-cornell, M.E., Guikema, S.D. (2003). Programmatic risk analysis for critical engineering systems under tight resource constraints. Operations Research. 354-370.
  • Guikema, S., Pate-cornell, M. (2002). Component choice for managing risk in engineered systems with generalized risk/cost functions. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. 78(3). 227-238.
    DOI »
    View record in Web of Science SM
  • Pat�-cornell, M.E., Guikema, S. (2002). Probabilistic modeling of terrorist threats: A systems analysis approach to setting priorities among countermeasures. Military Operations Research. 7(4). 5-23.
  • Guikema, S., Milke, M. (1999). Quantitative decision tools for conservation programme planning: practice, theory and potential. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION. 26(3). 179-189.
    DOI » View record in Web of Science SM
  • Pat, ., Cornell, E., Guikema, S. PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF MODELING INFORMATION TERRORIST THREATS: A ASSURANCE: AN APPLICATION SYSTEMS ANALYSIS APPROACH TO SETTING PRIORITIES AMONG COUNTERMEASURES.
  • Francis, R.A., Falconi, S.M., Nateghi, R., Guikema, S.D. Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments. Climatic Change. 1-25.
  • Quiring, S.M., Zhu, L., Guikema, S.D. Importance of soil and elevation characteristics for modeling hurricane-induced power outages. Natural Hazards. 1-26.
  • Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.M., Han, S.R. Prestorm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems. Risk Analysis.
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